The Impact of Enhanced Premium Tax Credits on Coverage by Race and Ethnicity

The Issue 

With enhanced PTCs set to expire at the end of 2025, this analysis—the second in a series—looks specifically at the enhanced PTCs effect on cost and coverage within Black and Hispanic communities.  

Previous research from Urban Institute researchers found that the enhanced PTCs will reduce the overall number of uninsured people in the United States by 4 million next year.

Key Findings

Urban Institute simulations show:

• The uninsured rate for Black individuals is projected to be 9.7% in 2025 with enhanced PTCs in effect and 11.9% without.
• The uninsured rate for Hispanic individuals is projected to be 17.9% in 2025 with enhanced PTCs in effect and 19.8% without.
• The uninsured rate for White individuals is projected to be 5.7% in 2025 with enhanced PTCs in effect and 6.8% without.
• Enhanced PTCs will dramatically raise coverage rates in the 10 states that have not expanded Medicaid under the ACA.
  • In those 10 states, uninsurance among Black people will be 11.7% in 2025 with enhanced PTCs but would be 15.9% without.
  • Among Hispanic people, uninsurance will be 24.2% in 2025 with enhanced PTCs and would be 28.4% without.
  • Uninsurance rates among White people are projected to be 7.2% in 2025 with enhanced PTCs and would be 9.8% without.

Conclusion

Enhanced PTCs contributed to larger coverage gains in states that have not expanded Medicaid. The enactment of the enhanced PTCs has substantially increased healthcare affordability for millions of people in the United States, with Black and Hispanic communities seeing the largest gains in healthcare coverage compared with other groups. Researchers conclude that if the enhanced PTCs expire, there would be a reversal in recent coverage and affordability gains.

About the Author/Grantee

The nonprofit Urban Institute is dedicated to elevating the debate on social and economic policy. For nearly five decades, Urban scholars have conducted research and offered evidence-based solutions that improve lives and strengthen communities across a rapidly urbanizing world. Their objective research helps expand opportunities for all, reduce hardship among the most vulnerable, and strengthen the effectiveness of the public sector. Visit the Urban Institute’s Health Policy Center for more information specific to its staff and its recent research.

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