Assessing the Health and Economic Impact of a Potential Menthol Cigarette Ban in New York City
A Modeling Study
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Report Publish Date: November 9, 2021
This journal article describes a study that estimates the impact banning menthol cigarettes would have on the health of New Yorkers.
Primary Takeaways
The authors estimate that banning menthol cigarettes in New York City could prevent nearly 3,000 cases of myocardial infection (heart attack) and nearly 2,000 cases of stroke over 20 years. According to the researchers’ analysis, Black women would have the largest reduction in poor outcomes from cardiovascular disease.
The researchers also projected $1.62 billion in healthcare savings over 20 years.
Overview and Objectives
Past research suggests menthol cigarettes are more addictive and harder to quit than regular tobacco cigarettes. In New York City, nearly half of smokers usually smoked menthols, according to this study, and women and Black people were more likely than others to smoke them.
At the time of the study, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had proposed a ban on menthol cigarettes. The authors wanted to know how such a ban would affect the health of New Yorkers.
Hypothesis or Approach
The authors created a microsimulation model that could predict cardiovascular disease outcomes and costs among specific populations over a long period of time.
How This Influences Change
This study’s results could help policymakers advocate for policies that ban menthol cigarettes and aim to reduce health disparities.
Research: Go Deeper
Menthol in cigarettes increases nicotine dependence and decreases the chances of successful smoking cessation. In New York City (NYC), nearly half of current smokers usually smoke menthol cigarettes. Female and non-Latino Black individuals were more likely to smoke menthol-flavored cigarettes compared to males and other races and ethnicities. Although the US Food and Drug Administration recently announced that it will ban menthol cigarettes, it is unclear how the policy would affect population health and health disparities in NYC. To inform potential policymaking, we used a microsimulation model of cardiovascular disease (CVD) to project the long-term health and economic impact of a potential menthol ban in NYC. Our model projected that there could be 57,232 (95% CI: 51,967–62,497) myocardial infarction (MI) cases and 52,195 (95% CI: 47,446–56,945) stroke cases per 1 million adult smokers in NYC over a 20-year period without the menthol ban policy. With the menthol ban policy, 2,862 MI cases and 1,983 stroke cases per 1 million adults could be averted over a 20-year period.
The model also projected that an average of $1,836 in healthcare costs per person, or $1.62 billion among all adult smokers, could be saved over a 20-year period due to the implementation of a menthol ban policy. Results from subgroup analyses showed that women, particularly Black women, would have more reductions in adverse CVD outcomes from the potential implementation of the menthol ban policy compared to males and other racial and ethnic subgroups, which implies that the policy could reduce sex and racial and ethnic CVD disparities. Findings from our study provide policymakers with evidence to support policies that limit access to menthol cigarettes and potentially address racial and ethnic disparities in smoking-related disease burden.
J Urban Health, November 19, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-021-00581-8
Research Team
This study and report were conducted and created by the following people.
- Yan Li
- Julia Sisti
- Karen R. Flórez
- Sandra S. Albrecht
- Anita Viswanath
- Marivel Davila
- Jennifer Cantrell
- Diksha Brahmbhatt
- Azure B. Thompson
- John Jasek
- Earle C. Chambers
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