Marketplace Pulse: Bronze Plans with Premiums of $50 or Less Become Scarce in 2026

The Marketplace Pulse series provides expert insights on timely policy topics related to the health insurance marketplaces. The series, authored by RWJF Senior Policy Adviser Katherine Hempstead, analyzes changes in the individual market; shifting carrier trends; nationwide insurance data; and more to help states, researchers, and policymakers better understand the pulse of the marketplace.

With open enrollment underway for 2026, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) announced in a recently released fact sheet that nearly 60% of eligible people who plan to re-enroll in 2026 coverage will have access to a plan in their chosen metal level with premiums at or below $50 per month, even without the extension of the enhanced premium tax credits (ePTCs) that are currently set to expire at the end of 2025. As CMS acknowledged, this marks a sharp decline from 2025 where, with the availability of ePTCs, a much higher share of eligible enrollees (83%) had access to a plan at this price point in their chosen metal level. The decline in the availability of affordable plans highlights the significant impact that the decrease in tax credits is likely to have on younger enrollees, even at incomes well under 400% of the federal poverty level (FPL).

An assessment of net premiums across states that use the ACA’s federal marketplace (Healthcare.gov) makes it clear that the availability of low-cost bronze plans will significantly decrease, especially for younger enrollees. For example, as Figure 1 illustrates, 40-year-olds at 250% of the FPL (about $39,000 annual income) now have access to a bronze plan of $50 or less per month in just 25% of Healthcare.gov zip codes, as compared to 93% of zip codes if the ePTCs had been extended (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Percentage of 2026 Healthcare.gov Zip Codes with $50 or less 2026 Bronze Premiums with and without Enhanced Premium Tax Credits by Age and FPL

Bronze plans with $50 premiums are almost entirely non-existent for 40-year-old enrollees at 300% FPL in 2026. For 50-year-olds at 250% FPL, $50 bronze plans are available in about 60% of Healthcare.gov zip codes as compared to 98% if ePTCs had been extended.

Figure 2: 2026 Healthcare.gov Zip Codes with a Bronze Premium of $50 or Less With and Without Enhanced Premium Tax Credits (view on Tableau)

As seen in Figure 2, in the absence of the ePTCs there is a considerable amount of geographic variation in the availability of low-cost bronze plans that reflects different state approaches to rate setting. The size of the tax credit depends on enrollee income and the price of the second-lowest silver plan, i.e. the benchmark plan. In states where silver plans are priced significantly higher than bronze plans, the possibility of low-cost bronze plans is greater, because the tax credit has more buying power. This is the case in a number of states such as Texas, Wyoming, and parts of Utah, South Dakota, and Arizona. In these states overall premium levels are higher, and enrollees over 400% FPL that are losing their tax credits will face far higher premiums.

Across most of the states that use the federal Healthcare.gov platform, younger enrollees will receive tax credits that are too small to allow them to obtain an affordable bronze plan. For example, in Chagrin Falls, Ohio, a 40-year-old enrollee at 250% FPL will see their monthly premium for the cheapest bronze plan rise from $39 to $184 per month.

The availability of low-cost bronze plans is greater for consumers with incomes below 250% FPL, yet enrolling in a bronze plan at this income level forgoes the cost sharing reduction benefits that reduce co-pays and coinsurance. While lower income enrollees are often encouraged to buy up to silver to take advantage of the cost-sharing reduction benefits, this is not always possible from a budget perspective.

Bronze plans are relatively unpopular because they require high levels of out-of-pocket spending for deductibles, co-pays, and coinsurance. In 2025, only about 20% of enrollees chose bronze. Yet even though they are far from optimal, preserving access to lower-cost bronze plans is critical for consumers on tight monthly budgets. Unfortunately, the expiration of the ePTCs puts this modest goal out of reach for many. CMS suggests in its fact sheet that low-cost plans will be widely available despite the expiration of the ePTCs, yet a look at the Healthcare.gov landscape suggests that in many places this will not be the case.