Marketplace Pulse: Forecasted 2026 Premiums in Michigan Mean Many People Will Pay More for Less Coverage

The Marketplace Pulse series provides expert insights on timely policy topics related to the health insurance marketplaces. The series, authored by RWJF Senior Policy Adviser Katherine Hempstead, analyzes changes in the individual market; shifting carrier trends; nationwide insurance data; and more to help states, researchers, and policymakers better understand the pulse of the marketplace.

The end of enhanced premium tax credits (ePTCs) would mean higher premiums for all Affordable Care Act (ACA) enrollees in 2026, in many cases even if they switch to a plan with less coverage. In previous briefs we covered the spike in premiums that consumers over 401% of the federal poverty level (FPL) will face if they no longer qualify for tax credits. With rates for 2026 nearly finalized[1], we can now calculate how much more expensive subsidized marketplace plans will be without ePTCs. In Michigan, the initial average requested rate increase in the individual market for 2026 is 17%. Table 1 shows the percent of premiums covered by tax credits for a 40-year-old at 250% FPL for the lowest bronze plan and the benchmark silver plan (second-lowest silver premium) with and without ePTCs.

Table 1: Age 40, 250% FPL, Share of Premium Covered by Tax Credits (ACA versus ePTC) and Monthly Subsidized Premium – Rating Area 1 – Monroe County

If ePTCs stay in place for 2026, consumers aged 40 and older in Monroe County who earn less than 250% FPL would be able to choose between a free bronze plan or a benchmark silver plan (with cost-sharing reductions) for no more than $130 per month. Without congressional extension of the ePTCs, a 40-year-old at 250% FPL will instead pay $275 per month for the benchmark silver plan or $143 per month for a bronze plan. Figure 1 shows the share of the lowest bronze and benchmark silver premium covered for 21-, 40-, 50-, and 64-year-old consumers in Monroe County (Rating Area 1) with incomes ranging from 100% to 500% FPL.

Figure 1: Share of Lowest Bronze and Benchmark Silver Premium Covered by ACA and Enhanced Tax Credits by Age - PY 2026 Michigan Proposed Rates - Rating Area 1 - Monroe County

The loss of the ePTCs is so significant that even enrolling in a bronze plan with a lower actuarial value will not be enough to prevent a monthly premium increase. In 12 of Michigan’s 16 rating areas, the lowest cost 2026 bronze plan for a 40-year-old at 250% FPL with the ACA’s tax credit structure will cost more than the cheapest silver plan would be if ePTCs are extended. Consumers at 250% FPL who cannot afford the additional $93 more per month in Lapeer County for a silver plan will lose access to cost-sharing reductions that lower the cost of accessing care if they enroll in a bronze plan instead. Figure 2 shows the 2026 premiums for the lowest bronze plan with ACA tax credits and the lowest silver plan with ePTCs in the largest zip code in each county in Michigan.

Figure 2: PY 2026 Low Bronze Premium With ePTCs Compared to PY 2026 Low Silver Premium With ACA Tax Credits

PY 2026 Michigan Bronze Plans are Cheaper than Catastrophic Plans in Many Rating Areas

At the beginning of September, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services announced that in 2026 consumers who are newly ineligible for APTC or CSRs would be eligible to enroll in catastrophic coverage. While this proposal may offer some relief in higher cost areas, Michigan’s proposed 2026 rates show that expanded access to catastrophic plans will not offer universal relief throughout the state. For example, in Wayne County the lowest priced bronze premium is $13 less than the lowest priced catastrophic plan for a 40-year-old and a catastrophic plan is only $14 cheaper than a bronze plan in Monroe County. For consumers shopping solely on premium price, access to a catastrophic plan may not offer significant savings.

[1] Rates used in this analysis were downloaded from Michigan’s public SERFF website on 9/22/2025.