These two estimates suggest a 2014 spending increase between 3.5 percent (using CMS data) and 4.2 percent (using HIPSM) in the absence of the ACA coverage expansion, which is much closer to the 2014 increase in GDP (3.9%) than the actual 2014 increase in national health expenditures (5.6%).
About the Urban Institute
The nonprofit Urban Institute is dedicated to elevating the debate on social and economic policy. For nearly five decades, Urban scholars have conducted research and offered evidence-based solutions that improve lives and strengthen communities across a rapidly urbanizing world. Their objective research helps expand opportunities for all, reduce hardship among the most vulnerable, and strengthen the effectiveness of the public sector. For more information specific to the Urban Institute’s Health Policy Center, its staff, and its recent research, visit http://www.urban.org/policy-centers/health-policy-center.