Measuring Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment Progress Under the Affordable Care Act: An Update

This brief finds that U.S. Medicaid/CHIP enrollment has increased by 6.7 million since the start of open enrollment season—52 percent of the 12.8 million projected to enroll by 2016, as estimated by the Urban Institute.

Key Findings

  • Through May 2014, states had enrolled 52 percent, or 6.7 million, of the 12.8 million individuals projected to enroll in Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) by 2016 based on the Urban Institute’s Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model. This is an increase relative to estimates based on April enrollment statistics, when 45 percent of projected enrollment had been achieved.

  • As was the case in April, states that expanded their Medicaid program had made greater progress by the end of May relative to 2016 enrollment projections than states that did not expand. States expanding Medicaid had reached 60 percent of the 2016 projected enrollment level, compared with 26 percent of the lower enrollment level projected for 2016 in the states that had not expanded Medicaid.