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Diabetes Cases Expected to Double Within 25 Years
A study published in the December issue of Diabetes Care suggests that the number of Americans with diabetes is expected to nearly double by 2034, posing a "significant strain" to the U.S. health care system, Reuters reports. To project future diabetes rates, researchers from the University of Chicago analyzed data for patients between age 24 and age 85 who participated in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the National Health Interview Survey. Using a Markov model, the researchers simulated individuals' movement across body mass index categories, the projected incidence of diabetes and screening, and the natural history of the disease and its complications across the next 25 years. According to the data, the number of individuals living with diabetes will increase to 44.1 million over the next 25 years, up from 23.7 million in 2009. The study also suggests that diabetes will "challenge the financial viability" of Medicare, forecasting that the number of Medicare beneficiaries with the disease will increase from 8.2 million in 2009 to 14.6 million in 2034, raising the program's associated spending from $45 billion to an estimated $171 billion. Although the study predicts that diabetes prevalence will grow during this time, researchers note that the changes stem from the size of incoming age cohorts, including the "baby boomer" generation, rather than by changes in obesity and overweight rates, which are expected to remain "fairly stable" in the non-diabetes population at roughly 30 percent and 35 percent, respectively. The researchers say the study emphasizes the importance of public health efforts to curb the number of individuals with diabetes, according to Reuters, and may help lawmakers design cost- and clinically-effective policies (Steenhuysen, Reuters, 11/27/09; Thomas, HealthDay, 11/27/09; Huang et al., Diabetes Care, December 2009).
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