Perceptions of Medical School Deans and State Medical Society Executives about Physician Supply
December 1, 2003 | Journal Article
Based on 2003 analyses of trends in health care, current rates of production are insufficient to meet the growing demand for physicians. Despite already existing shortages, there is controversy about their significance and potential solutions. This study used telephone surveys and internet questionnaires to collect perceptions of medical school deans and state medical society executives about the status of physician supply in their areas, the impact of supply on the medical schools' accomplishment of their mission, and potential for schools to change class size in response to supply shortages. In all, the authors drew data from 77 medical school deans, and 44 medical society executives in the United States and Puerto Rico. The vast majority of deans reported physician shortages (85 percent), while 10 percent perceived surpluses, often coexisting with shortages. Eighty-three percent of deans that reported shortages stated that it had a negative impact on their schools. Some deans reported recent or planned increases in class size (27 percent) or expansion in capacity (34 percent). However, 7 percent mentioned recent decreases in class size. Taken together, changes in class size could result in approximately 8 percent additional graduating physicians each year. This limited capacity for expansion poses a serious challenge that needs resolution if future physician supply is to sufficiently meet future health care demand.