Measuring Marketplace Enrollment Relative to Projections

As the first open-enrollment period for the new health insurance marketplaces draws to a close, it is important to measure each state’s progress. This brief compares the enrollment numbers as of March 1, 2014 to projected enrollment in 2014 and 2016 and estimates of the number of people eligible for health insurance marketplace subsidies.

Key Findings

  • As of March 1, 2014, the health insurance marketplaces had enrolled 61 percent of 2014 projected nationwide enrollment of subsidized and unsubsidized individuals, as derived from the Urban Institute’s Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model.

  • State-based marketplaces have been more successful in reaching projected enrollment levels than have the federally facilitated marketplaces. Within these categories, enrollment relative to projections varies tremendously.

  • Marketplaces had enrolled 63 percent of the subsidized population expected to enroll in 2014; again, state-based marketplaces had significantly higher enrollment rates than federally facilitated marketplaces.

  • As of March 1, marketplaces had enrolled 24 percent of projected 2016 enrollment and 13 percent of their target population (pre-reform nongroup insurance enrollees and uninsured individuals ineligible for public insurance or affordable employer-based coverage).

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