Trust for America’s Health analyzed state-level obesity trends and estimated the impact on disease rates and health care costs by 2030 if current trends continue, and if obesity is reduced by 5 percent.
Dates of Project: April 1, 2012—September 30, 2012
Description: Trust for America’s Health incorporated the findings into its annual report, F as in Fat: How Obesity Threatens America’s Future 2012, and data briefs for each of the 50 states.
If current trends continue, by 2030:
- Obesity rates for adults could exceed 44 percent in every state, and exceed 60 percent in 13 states.
- New cases of obesity-related diseases—including type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease and stroke, hypertension, and arthritis—could increase tenfold between 2010 and 2020, and then double again by 2030.
- The financial cost of treating preventable, obesity-related diseases could increase by more than 10 percent in 43 states and by more than 20 percent in nine states.
Reducing average BMI by 5 percent by 2030 could:
- Change the trajectory of obesity-related disease rates, sparing millions of Americans chronic and life-threatening diseases.
- Save almost every state between 6.5 percent and 7.8 percent on obesity-related health costs.
These findings are “a dramatic wake-up call,” said Project Director Laura Segal, MA. The impact of reducing obesity gave policy-makers a tool for shifting the policy debate from where we are now to “how we get to the better future.”
If current trends continue, more than 44% of adults in every state could be obese by 2030.