The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) will expand health insurance coverage by about 30 million people—reducing the number of uninsured by more than half. To determine who will remain uninsured, Matthew Buettgens, Ph.D., research associate, Urban Institute, and Mark Hall, J.D., Fred D. and Elizabeth L. Turnage Professor of Law, Wake Forest University, projected ACA’s effects as if it were fully implemented in 2011. They analyzed the likely composition, state-by-state, of the uninsured, finding:
The researchers, funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, found that composition would vary considerably among states, according to their economic and demographic characteristics, as well as other factors, such as their pre-reform Medicaid eligibility criteria. For example, the uninsured rate among the nonelderly would vary regionally from 4.6 percent in New England, to 11.4 percent in the West South Central region. Massachusetts would have the lowest rate (1.1 percent) and Texas the highest (12.8 percent).