Using electronic prediction markets to forecast avian flu activity

Another influenza pandemic is considered inevitable by most influenza experts. Predicting the timing of an avian influenza outbreak would be of great help in preparing for the threat. While there is considerable uncertainty, there is information available that can help predict the timing of the next pandemic. Unfortunately, that information is disparate and geographically dispersed. This grant supports investigators from the University of Iowa to develop and use a relatively new information aggregating tool, called a prediction market, to predict the probability of an avian influenza event. A prediction market can act as an international avian influenza "barometer". The probabilities generated by the market can help policy-makers and public health officials coordinate resources, facilitate new pandemic vaccine production, increase stockpiles of antiviral medications, and plan for the allocation of personnel and resources. The main outcome of the project will be an effectively functioning avian influenza prediction market.

Grant Details

Amount Awarded $245,685.00

Awarded on: 8/28/2006

Time frame: 8/15/2006 - 4/30/2010

Grant Number: 53052


University of Iowa Henry B. Tippie College of Business

108 John Pappajohn Business Building
21 East Market Street
Iowa City, 52242-1000


Forrest Nelson
Project Director