The Archimedes Healthcare Simulator (ARCHeS)

The idea of using a mathematical model to make more informed decisions is a common practice in many fields, but it is a relatively new tool for the health care sector.

In 2007, RWJF invested $15.6 million to develop the Archimedes Health Care Simulator (ARCHeS) and ensure easy access to this powerful web-based tool for nonprofit health care practitioners and policymakers to model and compare health care treatments for such things as heart disease and stroke and to assess their effectiveness and cost.

ARCHeS is based upon the Archimedes Model, a large-scale simulation model created by renowned physician and mathematician David Eddy.

Several agencies within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services are now using ARCHeS for large-scale analysis on health spending, treatment effectiveness and policy comparisons. The California Medi-Cal program also is using ARCHeS to assess the fiscal impact of weight reduction and anti-smoking programs.


Archimedes, Inc.

San Francisco, CA

David Eddy
Project Director

Lori A. Melichar

Lori Melichar, director  

Ushering in a New Era of Medical Decision-Making

“ARCHeS has been transformative and helped change the course of medical decision-making,” says Lori Melichar, RWJF director. “More and more organizations in the public and private sectors now see the value of mathematical modeling and simulation to better understand both the health and economic effects of specific interventions.”

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reduction in heart attacks & strokes among Kaiser Permanente members thanks to @archimedesmodel

How ARCHeS Works

ARCHeS is the first in a series of applications that will give researchers and decision-makers ever-increasing access to the Archimedes Model via Software as a Service (SAAS). SAAS users can run their own health care simulations using a comprehensive web interface with intuitive editors for setting up multi-scenario studies, specifying: populations, background care, conditions, standard or custom interventions, care processes, and treatments.

News and Published Research from ARCHeS

A Simulation Shows Limited Savings From Meeting Quality Targets Under The Medicare Shared Savings Program

Using the Archimedes Model, researchers found that just hitting benchmarks for better quality under the Medicare Shared Savings Program would produce only modest savings for participating accountable care organizations (ACOs).  ACOs will have to lower costs by other means, such as through improved use of information technology and care coordination.

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The ‘Global Outcomes Score’: A Quality Measure, Based On Health Outcomes, That Compares Current Care To A Target Level Of Care

Current methods for measuring quality—which focus on processes and treatment goals—reveal little about the outcomes patients actually experience. The Global Outcomes (GO) Score, supported by the National Committee for Quality Assurance, is an outcomes-based measure that can be used to assess the potential effectiveness of different interventions, such as prevention activities, tests, and treatments.

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David Eddy Created The Archimedes Model To Predict And Analyze Care

“People & Places” profile of David Eddy in Health Affairs. “Eddy’s work in modeling and evidence-based medicine has undoubtedly changed the face of medical decision making...” 

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NCQA To Test Pioneering Way to Measure Quality, Foster Wider Use of Prevention Strategies

NCQA To Test Pioneering Way to Measure Quality, Foster Wider Use of Prevention Strategies

The Global Cardiovascular Risk score, a “next generation” quality improvement tool, is being co-developed by NCQA and Archimedes, Inc.

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ARCHeS Healthcare Simulator: Expanding Access of Powerful Simulator to Decision-Makers

Via the Internet, ARCHeS will dramatically expand access to Archimedes, a powerful medical outcomes predictive model.

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HHS Enlists Archimedes Inc. to Expand Government's Use of Health Care Modeling for Forecasting Quality and Cost Outcomes

Department of Health and Human Services agencies can now use the ARCHeS tool to conduct large-scale analyses to evaluate health spending, treatment, and effectiveness.

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